All Key Regional Stock Markets Are Now In Intermediate Up Trends

With Europe and China joining the other key regional markets, they are all now in intermediate up trends, as measured by our 4-Factor Monthly Trend Indicator.  This is not a prediction of the future, merely an observation of the current trend condition of the markets.

(see video description of the indicator methodology and uses; and performance of the US large-caps in tactical allocation since 1901; here).

Each market is plotted below using a proxy ETF, showing the trend indication month-by-month for the last 10 years (4+ years for China ETF).

The trend indicator is plotted in black in the top panel, showing 100, 50 or 0.  A 100 means up trend.  A 0 means down trend.  A 50 means a weak trend or transition between trends.

The 4 factors shown in the main panel are:

  • whether the leading edge of the 10-month moving average is pointing up or down (gold line)
  • whether position of the price is above or below the 10-month average (black vertical bars)
  • whether buying pressure is net positive or net negative (dashed green line, left scale)
  • whether the rate of price change in the direction of the trend is keeping up with a geometric pace  (red dots).

US STOCKS INTERMEDIATE-TERM TRENDS:

(click images to enlarge)

S&P 500 Large-Cap (SPY)

2017-03-21_SPY trend

S&P 100 Mega-Cap (OEF)

2017-03-22_OEF trend

S&P 400 Mid-Cap (MDY)

2017-03-22_MDY midcap

Russell 2000 Small-Cap (IWM)

2017-03-22_IWM Smallcap

Russell Micro-Cap

2017-03-22_IWC microcap

Russell 3000 “total market” (IWV)

2017-03-22_IWV R3000

 

INTERNATIONAL STOCKS INTERMEDIATE-TERM TRENDS:

Europe (VGK):

2017-03-22_VGKtrend

Japan (EWJ):

2017-03-22_EWJ trend

China (MCHI):

2017-03-22_MCHI trewnd

Global Emerging Markets (VWO):

2017-03-22_VWO Trend

Frontier Markets (FM):

2017-03-22_FM trend

 

 

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