Archive for the ‘market conditons’ Category

Breadth Character of the US Stock Market

Monday, March 27th, 2017
  • Major stocks indexes still in intermediate-term up trends
  • Breadth indicators suggest problems underneath with prospect of near-term corrective move
  • Maintain current reserves in anticipation of better entry point for broad index positions

WHAT ARE BREADTH INDICATORS?:

Stock market breath indicators  measure the degree to which the price of a market-cap weighted index, such as the S&P 500 index, and the broad equal weighted market are changing in harmony — looking for “confirmation” or “divergence”. With confirmation, expect more of the same. With divergence be prepared for the path of the index to bend toward the direction of the path of the breadth indicator.

It works in a way similar  to the physical world as described in Newton’s First Law of Motion, which says that an object in motion continues in motion with the same speed and direction unless acted upon by outside force. The object is the stock index price. The force is the breath indicator.

There are multiple forces acting upon the object (the stock index), and it is the sum of those forces  that determine the speed and direction of the  index. Breadth indicators are among the more  powerful forces, because they reflect the effect of other forces (such as earnings and growth prospects and microeconomic news) on each of the index constituents separately.

Breadth indicators tend to be more effective at signaling impending market tops than market bottoms.

As more and more of the broad market issues move in the opposite the direction of the market-cap weighted stock index, the greater is the probability of reversal in the direction of the stock index.  The breath indicator represents the equal weighted broad market, which normally peaks before the market-cap weighted indexes peak..

Additionally, when breath indicators reach extreme values in the same direction as a market-cap index,  the market-cap  index is thought to be overbought or oversold, and subject to moderation back toward the moving average.

Let’s look at a few breadth indicators that we follow weekly to see what they might be suggesting at this time about the Standard & Poor’s 500.

CURRENT S&P 500 INTERMEDIATE-TERM TREND CONDITION:

First, let us stipulate that the S&P 500 is in an uptrend. Actually most major indexes around the world are currently in up trends (see a recent post documenting trends around the world).

Figure 1 shows our 4-factor  monthly intermediate-term trend indicator in the top panel in black (100 = up trend, 0 = down trend, 50 = weak or transitioning trend).  (see video explaining methodology, uses, and performance in a tactical portfolio since 1901).

FIGURE 1:

(click images to enlarge)

2017-03-27_SPY trend

 

BREADTH INDICATORS CONDITION:

Percentage of S&P 1500 In Correction, Bear or Severe Bear

We  look for divergences between the direction of the combined constituents of the S&P 1500 broad market index with the direction of the S&P 500 index.

In Figure 2, we plot the percentages of constituents  in a 10%  Correction or worse;  in a 20% Bear or worse;  and in a 30% Severe Bear or worse versus the price of the S&P 500.

This measure’s how much bad stuff is happening in the broad market.  The weekly data is a bit noisy, so we also plot the 13 week ( 3 month) average shown as a dashed line over the weekly data.

Leading up to the 2015 correction, these indicators (particularly the 10% Correction or worse indicator) gave an early warning of developing risk of a market reversal.

After the 2015 correction, those indicators continued to deteriorate, event though the &P 500 recovered; once again giving a signal that not all was well, which led to the 2016 correction.

After the 2016 correction,  those indicators improved rapidly  until the period before the 2016 election where concerns were rising. After the election, the indicators once again improved very rapidly, but now those issues in Correction, Bear  or Severe Bear  are rising again, suggesting caution about the possibility of another market reversal.

(click images to enlarge)

FIGURE 2:

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Percentage of S&P 1500 Stocks Within 2% of 12-Month High:

In Figure 3, we plot the percentage of S&P 1500  constituents within 2% of their 12 month high, versus the price of the S&P 500.   This measures how much good stuff is happening in the broad market.

That breadth indicator  began to decline months before the 2015 correction and continued to decline even as the market recovered from that correction, portending the early 2016 correction.

The 13 week average turned down before the larger part of the corrective move preceding the 2016 election and rose after the election, but now it is  rising again, suggesting the possibility for a corrective move in the near term.

FIGURE 3:2017-03-26_2pct

S&P 1500 Net Buying Pressure:

Figure 4 presents another breath indicator, which recall “Net Buying Pressure”.

It measures the flow of money into rising and falling prices of the constituents of the S&P 1500 for comparison with the  direction of movement of the S&P 500  index.

The chart below plots  the Net Buying Pressure for 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months.

We multiply the price change in Dollars of each of the 1500  constituents each day, and multiply that change by the volume of shares traded each day. We sum  the negative products, and sum the positive products.     We then divide the sum of the positive products by the sum of the positive and negative products combined. If the ratio is more 50%,  that means there is more positive product than negative product, which we called Net Buying Pressure.   If the ratio is less than 50%,  that means there is less positive product than negative product, which we call Net Selling Pressure.

You can see in the chart that Net Buying Pressure began to decline in advance of correction in 2015 and continued to decline even as the index recovered before going into a second correction 2016. Since then net buying pressure has risen until just recently, when it has begun to decline again. That suggests to us trend in the S& 500  is not well supported by the broad market, and may be ready for a corrective move.

FIGURE 4:

2017-03-26_NetPressure

 

Bottom line for us is the view that the broad market foundation of US stocks is materially weakening, making the major market-cap indexes (dominated by the largest stocks) increasingly, visibly vulnerable to a material corrective price move; which suggests a better time later to commit new capital than now.

 

 

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Equity Market Conditions Assessment & Portfolio Allocation Intentions 2017-03-17

Monday, March 13th, 2017

This note has three parts:

  1. Short summary of our current market view and portfolio allocation implications
  2. Bullet point outline of details behind our thinking in 5 segments (Trend, Valuation, Sentiment, Breadth, Forecasts)
  3. Supporting graphics for most of the bullet points provided in 24 charts and tables.

The short summary is of our market view and intended allocation actions for discretionary accounts, and recommended actions for coaching or “prior approval” accounts

For those of you who want a feel for why we have our market view and why we believe the allocation changes are appropriate; the bullet points will help.

If you want to see what data is behind most of the bullet points, you will want to look at the 24 supporting graphics.

There is an unfortunate need to use some jargon in the bullet points and graphics which may be unfamiliar to some of you, so please call or write in to have any of them explained; and to discuss their significance to portfolio decisions.

THE SHORT SUMMARY …………

Major world equity markets are in up trends — but there is mounting evidence that the US markets are over-extended and significantly vulnerable to a meaningful downward adjustment based on a combination of valuation, breadth, possible turmoil from key elections in Europe; and as Goldman Sachs puts it “rhetoric meets reality” in Washington.

Downside risk exists, but while the trend remains upward, we are remaining invested.  However, we are not committing additional assets from cash positions to US equity risk positions at this time (except for dollar-cost-averaging programs) due to the elevated vulnerability of the US stocks market.  We will be transferring some of the US equity risk assets in portfolios to some international markets that are in intermediate-term up trends that offer better valuation opportunities.

Portfolio changes or recommendations will be framed within the strategic allocation policy level of each client which varies based on individual needs, goals, stage of financial life, preferences, risk tolerance, and other limits or factors.

Based on valuation and long-term forecasted returns, US stocks exposures will transition from the higher end of individual portfolio policy allocations to the long-term strategic objective levels, or a bit below.  We are currently underweighted non-US developed markets and emerging markets allocations, which we will gradually raise to the long-term strategic allocations levels of each individual portfolio’s allocation policy.

Emerging markets have a more attractive valuation level than other non-US international stock markets (although they pose significantly more volatility), and allocation to them may be raised somewhat above strategic target levels within individual permitted allocation ranges.

For determination of intermediate trend status, we relay on our monthly 4-factor indicator. For more information about our trend following indicator and its performance implications, click here to see our descriptive video.

THE BULLET POINTS …………

  • TREND (see Figures 1-6): The intermediate-term stock trends are:
    • United States – UP
    • Non-US Developed Markets – UP
    • Emerging Markets – UP
  • VALUATION (see figures 7-12): Based on history:
    • United States – Expensive on Price-to-Book and Price-to-10yrAvEarnings and not expensive when earnings yield is compared to Treasury yields.  However, when rates rise the comparison will worsen, making stocks more expensive.
    • Non-US Developed Markets – Moderately expensive on Price-to-Book and moderately inexpensive on Price-to-10yrAvEarnings
    • Emerging Markets – Significantly Inexpensive on Price-to-Book and Price-to-10yrAvEarnings
  • SENTIMENT (see Figures 13-17): for US stocks are:
    • Institutional Investors – are reducing equity allocations (a Bearish indication)
    • Investment Newsletter Writers – Bullish at record high levels (a Bearish contra indication)
    • Individual Retail Investors – strongly Bearish this week but neutral last week
    • Options Market – complacent to mixed (jargon terms defined below):
      • Volatility Index – below 200-day and long-term average (complacent, expects smooth ride next 30 days)
      • Skew Index – above 200 day average and long-term trend line (nervous about possible large downside move, next 30 days)
      • Individual Equities PUT/CALL ratio – is 9% above its 200-day and its 10-year average (more cautious that institutional investors)
      • Index PUT/CALL ratio – is 7 % above 200-day average and 4% below its 10-year average (cautious but mixed signal)
  • BREADTH (see Figures 18-21) the trends are:
    • Percent of S&P 1500 stocks in Correction, Bear or Severe Bear have decidedly turned up (Bearish)
    • Percent of S&P 1500 stocks within 2% of their 12-month highs have decidedly turned down (Bearish)
    • The net flow of money is into S&P 1500 stocks over 3 month, 6 months and 1 years, but the leading edge of those flow has turned down
    • The net flow is explained by the net Buying Pressure declining substantially more than the Selling Pressure; and both measures are at levels below the 12-month average indicating reduced overall force driving the market
  • FORECASTS (see Figures 22-24):
    • “Street” consensus 2017 S&P 500 earnings growth 8.9% on revenue growth of 7.2%
    • “Street” consensus 2018 S&P 500 earnings growth of 12.0& on revenue growth of 5.1%
    • Consensus 3-5 year earnings growth for S&P 500 is 8.89%
    • Consensus 3-5 year earnings growth for MSCI non-US developed markets stocks index is 8.76%
    • Consensus 3-5 year earnings growth for MSCI emerging markets stocks index is 10.37%
    • Consensus 3-5 year earnings growth for MSCI core Europe stocks is 8.11%
    • Consensus 3-5 year earnings growth for MSCI Japan stocks is 9.43%
    • Consensus 3-5 year earnings growth for MSCI China stocks is 7.13%
    • Bank of America/Merrill Lynch just raised its 2017 S&P 500 price target from 2300 to 2450
    • Research Affiliates (leading factor based investor) forecasts 10-year real (after inflation) returns:
      • US large-cap stocks 0.7% (with 14.4% volatility)
      • US small-cap stocks 0.5% (with 19.6% volatility)
      • Non-US Developed Markets stocks 5.4% (with 17.0% volatility)
      • Emerging Markets stocks 7.0% (with 23.3% volatility)
    • GMO Bearish Mgr (lowest min fund investment $10 million available) forecasts 7-year real returns
      • US large-cap stocks – negative 3.4%
      • US small-cap stocks – negative 2.7%
      • Large International stocks – positive 0.2%
      • Emerging Market stocks – positive 4.1%
    • BlackRock (fund manager in the world) forecasts 5-year nominal returns
      • Large US stocks 4.1% (with 15.5% volatility)
      • Small US stocks 4.1% (with 18.7% volatility)
      • Large International stocks 5.5% (with 18.5% volatility)
      • Emerging Markets stocks 5.5% (with 23.3% volatility)

Options Jargon Description:

VIX: VIX is the options pricing implied volatility of the S&P 500 index over the next 30 days, based on at-the-money options

SKEW: SKEW measures the relative options “implied volatility” (essentially price) of S&P 500 out-of-the-money PUTs versus out-of-the-money CALLs with strike prices the same distance from the market price – essentially measuring the perceived “left tail risk” (tail risk is the probability of prices going below the level that is predicted by a normal probability Bell curve).

Portfolio managers are predisposed to buy PUTs for protection and sell CALLs for yield, which tends to increase out-of-the-money PUT premiums and depress out-of-the-money CALL premiums.

SKEW of 100 means the market expects equal implied volatility (essentially prices) for out-of-the money PUTs and CALLS.  SKEW greater than 100 means the market expects higher implied volatility (prices) for PUTs relative to CALLS – more perceived large downside risk.

The record low SKEW was 101.9 on March 21, 1991. The long-term average SKEW is around 115, and the high is around 150. The current 200-day average SKEW is about 130, and the current level is about 140. That means there is a heightened concern about a greater than typical risk of a large downside move in US stocks.

INDIVIDUAL EQUITIES PUT/CALL RATIO: The Equities PUT/CALL ratio is the PUTs volume divided by the CALLs volume on individual stocks. This tends to be reflection of actions by retail investors; and is often a contrary indicator.

INDEX PUT/CALL RATIO: The Index PUT/CALL ratio is also the ratio of the volume of PUTS and CALLS, but tends to be a reflection of the actions of institutional investors; and is not considered a contrary indicator.

THE SUPPORTING GRAPHICS …………

(click images to enlarge)

TREND

FIGURE 1: 
Over the past year, US stocks (VOO), non-US Developed Markets (VEA) and Emerging Markets (VWO) are generally in an up trend, although the US is way out front.

2017-03-13_00
FIGURE 2:
Over 3 years, the three regions are up, but the US is way ahead, and did not have as severe down moves as the other two regions.

As you will see the outperformance by the US is related to its current overvaluation, and the weaker performance of the other markets, is related to their more attractive valuation.
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FIGURE 3:
Our 4 factor monthly trend indicators ranks each of the three regions as in an up trend.
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FIGURE 4:
This time series of our trend indicator for the US shows the up trend established since March 2016.
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FIGURE 5:
The up trend in non-US Developed Markets was established in November 2016.
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FIGURE 6:
The up trend in Emerging Markets was established at the end of December 2016.
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VALUATION

FIGURE 7:
On price-to-book basis the US is very expensive (at the top of its 10-year range). Non-US Developed Markets are “normally” valued (at just above their median level). Emerging markets are inexpensive (price significantly below their median level).
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FIGURE 8:
In terms of the Shiller CAPE Ratio (price vs 10-year inflation adjusted average earnings), the US is very expensive relative to is long-term history. Developed Markets are inexpensive, and Emerging Markets are significantly inexpensive.
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FIGURE 9:
Based on a variety of valuation metrics the US is expensive. The Developed and Emerging Markets inexpensive by comparison.  Emerging Market have more attractive valuations than the Developed Markets.

In terms of profitability, the US is tops, which partly explains the higher valuation. Developed Markets are less profitable than Emerging Markets.

Emerging markets have competitive dividend yields and the lowest payout ratios.

Emerging markets seem to be a bit less leveraged than US stocks, and the Developed Markets are the most levered.
2017-03-13_08
VALUATION of US ALONE ….

In addition to the price-to-book and Shiller P/E to their respective histories, several other valuation metrics for the US should be considered; almost all of which suggest the market is very expensive

The “equity risk premium” [(stock earnings / price) – (10-yr Treasury yield)] is the only key valuation metric that suggest that stocks may not be overvalued; and that argument depends of the current historically low Treasury yields.

FIGURE 10:

Current equity risk premium for the 10-year inflation adjusted earnings-to-S&P 500 price is 0.90%. Since 1881, the equity risk premium for the S&P 500 and its large-cap precursors was higher 68% of the time.  That suggest modest overvaluation.

However, since the risk premium first went negative in 1964 (except for 4 months in 1929), the equity risk premium was only higher than now 30% of the time — a Bullish suggestion.

The question is whether the 135 history, or the 52 year history is the more important to consider. If the long history is more important, then the S&P 500 is somewhat expensive relative to the yield on 10-year Treasuries; but if the shorter history is more important, then the S&P 500 is inexpensive relative to Treasury yields.  However, Treasury yields are suppressed, and if they normalize to something in the 3% to 4% range before profits increase a lot, then stocks are expensive.
2017-03-13_09
FIGURE 11:
Current equity risk premium for the 12-month trailing earnings-to-S&P 500 price is 1.17%. Since 1881, the equity risk premium for the S&P 500 and its large-cap precursors was higher 68% of the time.  This also suggests moderate overvaluation.

However, since that risk premium first went negative in 1967 (except for 1 month in 1921), the equity risk premium was only higher than now 29% of the time — a Bullish indication.

The question is whether the 135 history, or the 49 year history is the more important to consider. The same logic applies as it does for the equity risk premium based on the 10-year inflation adjusted earnings yield.
2017-03-13_10
FIGURE 12:

S&P 500 GAAP earnings are not much higher than they were 4 years ago, yet the price of the index is a lot higher. That means much of the rise in the price of the index is merely paying more the what you get, not getting proportionately more for paying more.

10-year Treasury rates in 2013 more than doubled from less than 1.5% to more than 3%, yet the S&P 500 continued to rise in price faster than earnings.

Once again 10-year Treasuries have risen in 2016 from less than 1.5% to more than 2.5% and the price of the S&P 500 has continued to rise, even in the face of flat earnings, with falling earnings close behind in the rear view mirror.

If interest rates should make it to 3% in the near-term (not an unthinkable event), the equity risk premium on trailing 12-month earnings would drop from 1.17% to about 0.75%. Since 1881, the risk premium has been higher than 0.75% more than 70% of the time; and since 1967 it has been higher 64% of the time.  That would be Bearish.

This suggests valuation vulnerability in the face of probable moderate interest rate increases.

2017-03-13_11
SENTIMENT

FIGURE 13
The State Street Investors Confidence index is a behaviorally measured sentiment index — a measure of increases or decreases in public equity allocation in actual institutionally managed portfolios, a real measure of market sentiment by large institutions.

The rate of increase in their public equity risk allocations began a decline in around 2 years ago.  They began actually decreasing their public equity allocations in 2016 and continue to do so.

This is not an endorsement of current stocks markets.
2017-03-13_12
FIGURE 14:
Investors Intelligence monitors 100 leading investment newsletters to gauge the Bullish or Bearish sentiment of those writers. Extreme peaks in sentiment tend to be contrary indicators (not perfectly, of course), but when “everybody” is Bullish or Bearish, a trend is often about to be exhausted; because there are few additional people to join the point of view and bring move more money in the direction of the trend.

The current Bull-Bear spread is among the most extreme Bullishness of the last 10 years.  This suggests that a corrective action is likely nearby.

2017-03-13_13
FIGURE 15:
The American Association of Individual Investors conducts a continuous online survey of it members — essentially the retail investor.  Last week when this chart was created, the Bull-Bear spread was 2.29%, barely on the Bullish side of neutral.  In the subsequent week it turned on a dime dropping to negative 16.5%; strongly Bearish.

The chart suggests that this data is more a coincident indicators than a forward indicator, so the drop in sentiment parallels the recent weakness in the up trend.
2017-03-13_14
FIGURE 16:
TD Ameritrade publishes the Investor Movement Index.  It is Bullish at this time.  Here is what they do to make their index.

Each month Ameritrade calculates a short-term Beta (volatility relative to a benchmark such as the S&P 500) for each security.
Then it takes a sample of hundreds of thousands of customer accounts with at least $2,000 in their account and in which at least 1 trade was done the month, from its approximate 6 million customers.
It measures the total equity allocation and the aggregate short-term Beta (volatility relative to volatility of the S&P 500) of the equities in each portfolio (and other undisclosed factors) to develop the risk level of each portfolio.
Then equal weighting each account without regard to size or number of trades, it finds the median equity risk exposure, and puts that on its index scale (scale parameters not disclosed), and plots that versus the S&P 500.
The level and direction of the index is an indication of actual retail investor behavior instead of what they might say about their sentiment.

2017-03-13_15
FIGURE 17:
The options market reveals the actual risk taking behavior of investors in terms of the pursuit of gain (buying CALLs) or seeking protections (buying PUTs).  Here are 4 measures of options market behavior.

VIX measures the expected volatility of the S&P 500 over the next 30 days.  At under 12, the VIX is well below the 10 year average of about 20, and among the lowest levels of the past 10 years.  This is complacency.  Complacency is probably like everybody being on the same side of a boat, which makes the boat prone to tip over.  Volatility is a mean reverting measure, which suggest more volatility in the relatively near future than in the relatively near past.

The SKEW Index (defined above in the jargon section) is a measure of the concern over the size and probability of an unusually large downside move.  That measure is elevated, which gives reason for caution.

The Equity PUT/CALL index (defined above in the jargon section) is a measure of the relative “protection seeking/opportunity seeking” behavior of mostly retail investors.  That ratio is slightly elevated versus average levels, indicating a mildly increased relative pursuit of protection.

The Index PUT/CALL index (defined above in the jargon section) is a measure of the of the relative “protection seeking/opportunity seeking” behavior of mostly institutional investors.  That ratio is slightly lower than average, indicating a mildly lower than average relative pursuit of protection.
2017-03-13_16
BREADTH
This is one of our favorite measures, and one that we directly measure weekly since the beginning of 2014.  Breadth measures the condition or behavior of the overall membership of the broad S&P 1500 index and compares it to the price level of the market-cap weighted S&P 500 index — in other words, it checks to see if the rank and file members of the market are going in the same direction as the mega-cap leaders of the market.

For example, the price movement of Apple and Exxon have a lot more impact of the price of the S&P 500 or the S&P 1500 than 100’s of smaller members of the S&P 500 and S&P 1500.  If the rank and file are going in the same direction as the leadership, that is Bullish breadth.  If they are going in the opposite direction, that is Bearish breadth.  The leaders can only go so far for so long without the rank and file coming along.

FIGURE 18:
The percentage of S&P 1500 index constituents in a Correction or worse (grey line — down 10% or more from their 12-month high) rose dramatically before the November presidential election, then dropped off just as steeply to among the lowest levels in the past 3 years.  Just recently, however, the percentage in Correction or worse sharply turned up — still in “normal” range, but the direction change is a negative for the current stocks rally.

The same is true, but to a lesser extent for the percentage of S&P 1500 stocks in a Bear or worse (blue line — down 20% or more), or in a severe Bear or worse (red line — down 30% or more).
2017-03-13_17
FIGURE 19:
The percentage of S&P 1500 stocks within 2% of their 12-month high was declining prior to the election, turned up sharply to reach the highest level in the past 3 years immediately after the election, but has since declined to the “normal” range with a current downward direction.  The provides a note of caution about the current rally.
2017-03-13_18
FIGURE 20:
The Net Buying Pressure (Buying Pressure / Sum (Buying Pressure + Selling Pressure), which has been net positive since the bottom of the early 2016 Correction, began to decline before the election; resumed growing strength after the election; but has recently been losing steam.  This is not supportive of the current rally.
2017-03-13_19

BuyingPressureMethod
FIGURE 21:

The separate Buying Pressure and Selling Pressure components of the S&P 1500 stocks Net Buying Pressure in the figure above are shown here.

The rising S&P 500 price in 2016 was not matched by rising Buying or Selling Pressure, showing waning enthusiasm for equities.  After the election both Buying and Selling Pressure rose, but Buying Pressure rose more than Selling Pressure.  Recently however, the decline in Net Buying Pressure noted above, is the result of Buying Pressure declining substantially, while Selling Pressure has declined far less.

These data also suggest the fuel of the rally may be running low.
2017-03-13_20

PressureCompnentsMethod
FORECASTS
Looking way down the road with 5-10 year forecasts, and supporting our view that a shift in allocation more toward international equities, and less in US equities is appropriate, are forecasts by Research Affiliates (a noted factor-based asset manager), by GMO ( a Bearish asset manager for the very wealthy — $10 million and up to invest in their funds); and by BlackRock (the largest fund manager in the world).
FIGURE 22:
Research affiliates studies factors with focus on the current Shiller CAPE Ratio (Price divided by the inflation adjusted 10-year average Earnings) relative to its historical median, and historical highs and lows.  They find that to be a good long-term indicator of opportunity.  They view the CAPE Ratio as mean reverting over the long-term.

Based on CAPE and other factors, this chart shows how they see the real (nominal less inflation) return and the volatility of US, non-US Developed Markets (“EAFE”) and Emerging Markets (“EM”) working out over the next 10 years on an annualized basis.  They definitely see international equities as the place to be — but with more volatility.

2017-03-13_21
FIGURE 23:
GMO does not disclose their forecasting methodology, but they are among the most Bearish institutional manager, so worth noting for that.  Over the next 7 years, they see the real return on US large-cap stocks as negative 3+%; the real return on large international stocks as barely positive; and the real return on Emerging Market as positive 4+%.  They also see negative real returns on US and Dollar hedged international bonds, but positive 1+% real returns on Emerging Markets debt.

2017-03-13_22
FIGURE 24:
Over the next 5 years, BlackRock sees nominal return on US stocks as very low, and much lower than international stocks.  They see non-US Developed Markets stocks as generating nominal return  at about the same level as Emerging Markets, but with volatility similar to that of US small-cap stocks; whereas they see much higher volatility for Emerging Market stocks.
2017-03-13_23

 

 

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Bloomberg Declared Emerging Markets In Bull Status — Maybe That’s Just Bull

Saturday, March 19th, 2016

(this is our letter to clients 2016-03-18)

QVM Clients,

Today, a Bloomberg TV announcer said emerging markets are now in a Bull phase. Don’t get overly excited by that call. I know why they said that, but question the utility of their definition.

Vanguard’s emerging markets ETF, for example, closed at $34,40, up 11.2% from is multi-year closing low of $30.74; and up 22.9% from its multi-year low intra-day price. The former is not a Bull, and the latter, even if that is a reasonable way to measure, is not a Bull in the overall price history of the ETF.

It is well accepted that a 20% decline from a high is a Bear; but it is less well accepted that a 20% rise from a bottom is a Bull. However, let’s consider some hypothetical extremes first.

Let’s say a $100 stock grinds down to $10 within 12-months or less. If that stock rose to $12 (up 20%), Bloomberg would have to call that a Bull, even though it was 88% below its high.

That contrasts greatly to a $100 stock that declines to $80 (the Bear threshold) and then climbs to $96 (a 20% rise). Maybe that is a Bull.

Some other qualitative factor needs to be present, in my view, to call a Bull after a Bear.

That, to me, involves at a minimum bringing the trend line into the picture, if not the relationship of the price to the trend line.

If that $100 stock that went to $10 and stayed there for a year, and then went to $12 – now maybe that is a Bull – because by then the trend line would be in the vicinity of $10 and the rise to $12 becomes more meaningful.

So now let’s look at Vanguard’s emerging markets ETF to see if a Bull is realistic.

Here is simple monthly chart (where the last price bar is month-to-date) over many years. Visually, without any technical aids, it is hard to think of the March price action as a return to Bull status.

(click images to enlarge)

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Here is 14 month chart. OK, maybe the last price bar looks like a big improvement, because it is above the trend of the closes, as you can visualize without aids.

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Now let’s look at it through the lens of some technical filters. Without even explaining all the extra plots on the chart, it starts to look a lot less appetizing, and not so Bullish.

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Emerging markets may pose a trading opportunity, perhaps the recent rise will continue and become what we would accept as a Bull, but for now it is at best a counter-trend rally in a downward market. And, none of that considers the terrible constitutional crisis and economic problems in Brazil, or the sanctions against Russia, or the challenges in China to get past their real estate bubble and extend-and-pretend their bank loan portfolios, or the continual capital flight from those nations.

Let’s consider this last chart and see how it tells us emerging markets are not in a Bull state.

The top panel is our net market condition and phased tactical allocation modulation rating, on a scale from 0 to 100, based on four factors:

  • The direction of the primary trend line (the gold line)
  • The price relative to the trend line
  • The changes in price relative to volume – supply/demand (dashed green line versus 50 level on left scale)
  • The price relative to a time based performance test (price vs dotted red line)

We give half of the weight to the direction of the trend line, and one sixth of the weight to each of the other three factors, to arrive at the overall market condition rating shown in bold black in the upper panel.

You can see that:

  • The trend direction is down (Bearish)
  • The price is below the trend line (Bearish)
  • The demand/supply ratio is under 50 (Bearish)
  • The price is below the time & performance threshold (Bearish)

Buying into emerging markets at this point is a speculative approach. Not wrong, but speculative; and should not be done on the basis of an off the top of the head TV declaration of a Bull without a more in-depth look at the total price behavior picture.

A lower risk way to enter emerging markets or any other market is to do it in stages. One way to move in stages would be to modulate exposure to each risk category based on a variable indicator of the trend strength of each category. We posit that our 4 factor tool is one reasonable tool for guiding a staged shift of allocation within a category, relative to your long-term policy allocation for each category.

In closing, here are the market condition ratings using the same tool for the leading S&P 500 ETF, its 9 sector ETFs; the soon to be declared 11th sector ETF (for real estate equities) and the stock ETFs for the world excluding the US, emerging markets, and China (the largest component county weight within the emerging markets index):

  •    17 – S&P 500 (SPY)
  •    17 – Materials (XLB)
  •     0 – Energy (XLE)
  •     0 – Financials (XLF)
  •   80 – Industrials (XLI)
  • 100 – Technology (XLK)
  • 100 – Consumer Staples (XLP)
  • 100 – Utilities (XLU)
  •    17 – Health Care (XLV)
  • 100 – Consumer Cyclicals (XLY)
  •   80 – Equity REITS (VNQ)
  •      0 – World excluding US (VEU)
  •      0 – Emerging Markets (VWO)
  •      0 – China (GXC)

These are trend following ratings, not based on any other technical parameter. They are not fundamental ratings or valuation ratings or thematic ratings. These are purely and simply statements of the status of the trend at this time. To the extent that most of the time (but not all of the time) the near-term future resembles the short-term past, these trend ratings may be predictive. However, they do not make suggestions about long periods of time. They are tactical ratings for allocation shifting within and around long-term policy allocation levels for each asset category.

For example, when you look at the S&P 500 and its sector ETFs through a valuation filter using the PEG ratio (P/E ratio divided by estimated 5-year earnings growth rate), as a measure of GARP (growth at a reasonable price), you get a different picture (where lower is better, and more than 2 is expensive):

  • 1.98 – S&P 500 (SPY)
  • 3.18 – Materials (XLB)
  • NMF – Energy (XLE)
  • 1.68 – Financials (XLF)
  • 1.64 – Industrials (XLI)
  • 1.37 – Technology (XLK)
  • 2.53 – Consumer Staples (XLP)
  • 3.86 – Utilities (XLU)
  • 1.97 – Health Care (XLV)
  • 1.20 – Consumer Cyclicals (XLY)

If you consider trend status and the cost of growth together, Industrials, Technology, and Consumer Cyclicals look like the best current bets. We will likely add exposure in these areas.   Utilities and Telecom (not available in an S&P 500 sector ETF) are both expensive in PEG terms, but are trending nicely. As yield oriented sectors, they are expected to suffer when interest rates rise.

Investors can make other arguments for other sectors based on fundamental, valuation or themes. For example, Energy pops out as a recovery story when oil prices i; and Financials are expected to do well when interest rates begin to rise.

We will look at and write to you about some related breadth data and valuation data for US indexes, sectors and industries in the next several days.

In the meantime, don’t take TV host analysis of emerging markets as in a Bull market totally on board, without considering the information in this note.

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Compare Breadth: Europe, Japan, USA, China And India

Wednesday, January 27th, 2016

EUROPE, JAPAN and USA:

Back in December, many institutions recommended over-weighting Europe, and some preferred Japan.  They may still feel so, but at this time the internals for the key European and Japanese stock indexes are just a lousy as for the S&P 500.

(click images to enlarge)

2016-01-27_STOXX-NKY-SP500

 

Europe’s STOXX 600  has the highest portion of stocks within 2% of their trailing 1-year high at 4.03%, but that is not good.  Japan’s NIKKEI 225 is near zero at 0.45%.  The S&P 500 is between Europe and Japan at 2.01%

The percentage of constituents of the STOXX in a 10% Correction or worse is 78.49%; Japan 91.96% and the USA 80.48%.  Those are very bad numbers

The percentage of constituents of the STOXX in a 20% Bear or worse is 57.31%; Japan 62.95%; and the USA 58.15%. Those are very, very bad numbers.

You can see from the table image that the depth of the problem is not evident in the price performance of the indexes themselves, which are market-cap weighted and dominated by a small number of mega-cap members.

The median STOXX member is 23.46% off its high, while the index is only off 17.83%.  Both are bad numbers, but the median stock is about 6% farther from its high than the index is from its high.

Japan and the US show even greater divergences.  While all three indexes have similar median stock positions relative to their trailing highs, Japan’s median stock is about 10% off its high more than the NIKKEI; and the S&P 500 median stock is about 11.5% farther off than the index.

Only about 20% to 25% of the constituents of those three indexes have 200-day indexes with the tip pointing up (75% to 80% have tips pointing down).  The direction of the tip of the trend line is an important thing, as it takes a lot of force to make it change direction from positive to negative, or from negative to positive.

The percentage of members of those indexes that have prices above their 200-day averages is similar to the percentages with trend line tips pointing up.

We defined “rising” as a condition where both the tip of the trend line is pointing up AND the price is above the trend line.  Based on that arbitrary definition only 12% to 16% of members of the three indexes are “rising”.

Looking at the very short-term (the percentage of constituent stocks with prices above their 10-day moving average), the data are bit more encouraging (STOXX 63%, NIKKEI 70%, S&P500 50%).E

CHINA and INDIA:

India is favored over China by many analysts, and this internal breadth data agrees with the point of view, at least in terms of the current condition of their respective markets.

2016-01-27_China-India

This chart looks at the combined Shanghai and Shenzhen for China; and at the SENSEX for India.

While they both have over 90% of their constituents in Correction territory or worse condition (China worse at 98% and India better at 91%); India is much better off than China when it comes to the percentage of constituents in a 20% or worse Bear market (76% for India versus 96% for China).

Only 15% of Chinese stocks are above their 200-day average, while 50% of Indian stocks are above.

Using our definition of “rising”, only 15% of Chinese stocks are rising (similar to Europe, Japan and the USA), but 46% of Indian stocks are rising.

This is not a recommendation to invest in India, but it does appear that India is mending faster than China.

RELATED ETFs: 

  • STXX (STOXX 600)
  • EWJ (NIKKEI 225)
  • SPY (S&P 500)
  • GXC (China)
  • INDA (India)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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